FloodFutures™ is our predictive flood model that considers nine possible climate change scenarios between 2020 and 2080. We developed it to help utility companies, local authorities, infrastructure managers and commercial developers understand and plan for long-term flood risk.
Data from UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) indicates that in the UK we’re likely to receive more bouts of heavy rain more frequently in the future as a result of climate change. The number of flood events is likely to increase, and along with it, the potential for loss and damage. FloodFutures™ supports flood resilience by providing insight into flood risks and how they could change over time.
We collaborated with Landmark Information Group and Wales & West Utilities to develop the probabilistic flood models that underpin FloodFutures™. The FloodFutures dataset presents baseline flood risk data alongside nine future flood scenarios, based on the UKCP09 data for climate change projections.
|Best case (eg 10%ile)
|Central case (eg 50%ile)
|Worst case (eg 90%ile)
Each of these scenarios includes data layers on fluvial (river), pluvial (rain) and tidal flooding, sea-level rise, sea-level inundation, river bank and river bed erosion potential, impact on transport infrastructure, and bridge flooding heights.
We can provide the data in a number of formats, including spatial layers to integrate with your GIS system. You can define the geographical area you want to use. Licensing is flexible, and during the licensed period we’ll send you annual updates. The dataset will be fully refreshed when the UKCP18 climate change projections are published.
Click to view the technical details
- UK Climate Projections – UKCP09
- Land use and buildings data from Ordnance Survey (OS)
- 2014/15 EA LiDAR (±0.15m nominal vertical accuracy) from the Environment Agency, augmented with NEXTMap® (±0.6m)
- The most current hydrological and river flow data from the UK’s leading flood research authority – the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH)
- Fluvial (rivers)
- Tidal (sea/estuary/coastal)
- Flash (pluvial/surface water)
There are ten discrete layers for each of these data themes:
- Fluvial flooding
- Pluvial flooding
- Tidal flooding (encompasses sea level change)
- Sea level rise (shows low and high tidelines)
- Sea level rise inundation areas – zones that are subject to inundation due to sea level rise rather than as a result of a specific flood event
- River bed and river bank erosion potential is provided as a single layer with an erosion potential rating for each 100m river segment for all modelled fluvial scenarios.
- Impact on transport infrastructure is provided as two layers containing flood depth and erosion potential ratings from nearby watercourses for all modelled scenarios for each 100m stretch of the road and rail network.
- Bridge flooding heights are provided as a single layer containing flooding height information for fluvial and coastal modelled scenarios immediately upstream and downstream of bridges.
Horizontal grid resolution
Regularly validated and calibrated against actual flood events in the UK.
Under a high emissions climate change scenario, parts of the UK are predicted to receive more than ten times the frequency of rare, extreme flood events.