Understand how long-term flood risk will change over time

FloodFutures® is our predictive flood model that considers nine possible climate change scenarios between 2020 and 2080. We developed it to help (re)insurers, utility companies, local authorities, infrastructure managers and commercial developers understand and plan for long-term flood risk.

At a Glance

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  • Supports risk assessments of UK climate change
  • Covers 100% of Great Britain
  • Regularly updated to include the latest river flow, rainfall, land use and climate change predictions
  • Provides insight into the potential impact on transport, bridges and river banks
  • Includes fluvial, pluvial and tidal sources
  • Regularly validated following UK flood events
  • Increased flood resilience of communities, assets and infrastructure

Data from UK Climate Projections (UKCP) indicates that in the UK we are likely to receive more bouts of heavy rain more frequently in the future as a result of climate change. The number of flood events is likely to increase, and along with it, the potential for loss and damage. FloodFutures supports flood resilience by providing insight into flood risks and how they could change over time.

We collaborated with Landmark Information Group and Wales & West Utilities to develop the probabilistic flood models that underpin FloodFutures. The FloodFutures dataset presents baseline flood risk data alongside nine future flood scenarios, based on the UKCP data for climate change projections.

Scenario Year Percentile
Baseline 2017 Baseline
Low emissions 2020
Best case (eg 10%ile)
Medium emissions 2020
Central case (eg 50%ile)
High emissions 2020
Worst case (eg 90%ile)

Each of these scenarios includes data layers on fluvial (river), pluvial (rain) and tidal flooding, sea-level rise, sea-level inundation, river bank and river bed erosion potential, impact on transport infrastructure, and bridge flooding heights.

We can provide the data in a number of formats, including spatial layers to integrate with your GIS system. You can define the geographical area you want to use. Licensing is flexible, and during the licensed period, we’ll send you annual updates. The dataset will be fully refreshed when the UKCP18 climate change projections are published.

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“The modelling process has created a new type of flood map which reveals insights into future flood hazards. Created in partnership with Wales & West Utilities and flood modelling experts Ambiental, the new flood map and adaptation reporting service has already received positive responses from the industry”.   

Tom Telford, Landmark Information

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Being able to analyse future flood scenarios is hugely beneficial for us, so we can determine the impact of climate change on our gas network and the services we deliver to our customers”.   

Oliver Lancaster, Future of Energy Project Manager for Wales & West Utilities 


Under a high emissions climate change scenario, parts of the UK are predicted to receive more than ten times the frequency of rare, extreme flood events.